Michael Kayisms: Fallacy of the Predetermined Outcome
Thursday, July 16, 2009
We are continuing our segment on the weird things that Michael Kay says (over and over and over and over again). In the first post, John wrote about whether the Yankees have a "rally in their bones" or not.
Now, I'm here to tell you if I believe in the "fallacy of the predetermined outcome."
First of all, there is no such thing as the fallacy of the predetermined outcome (FPO), Kay just made it up. But did I really need to tell you that?
The definition of the FPO, according to Kay (considering he made it up, who else is going to define it?). For ease, I'm going to use a somewhat recent example to explain:
In the game on July 6, Derek Jeter was incorrectly called out trying to steal third base. The next batter got a hit. It would be natural to say, "Oh, if the umpire hadn't screwed up, Jeter would have scored on that hit!" Then Kay will say, "only if you believe in the FPO," because, if Jeter had been on third, the pitcher may have pitched the next batter differently and he wouldn't have gotten a hit.
The problem is, you can't "believe" in a fallacy. I'm going to use a philosophical example here so stay with me. A philosophical skeptic believes that there can be no absolute truth, that truth is relative and is different for everyone. But that means that no one can be wrong. Then, I could say there are absolute truths, and, based on the logic of a skeptic, I am right. That is the fallacy of the skeptic. (See, I actually did pay attention in my Western Civilization class). You can be a skeptic (or a predetermined outcomer) but there is the fallacy of each. You cannot believe in the fallacy, it's there or it isn't there.
So, the point is, Michael Kay isn't Socrates. He does have the whole "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing" thing down, but he still should not philosophize on-air.
5 comments:
If a fallacy has not yet been (or cannot be)proven then it becomes sort of mythical. In this case, shouldn't an individual get the opportunity to beleive in it or not?
None other than Joe Pepitone's daughter refers to him as "The Ass Clown". Perfect ! And for a journalism major who has broadcast Yankee games longer than I care to remember...his grammar is quite poor. All the Yes announcers like to say "Between he and I" or similar such phrases. Not the worst thing...but for professional broadcasters? Anyway...he IS an ass !!
Actually, it is called "outcome bias." While not a formal fallacy it is an error in thinking studied in psychology. It is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.
“For he and I” is an example of cathacresis
Lets I missed my flight. Then that flight hit a flock of birds and crashed killing everyone on board. Is it logical to assume that that plane would have crashed if I hadn't missed the flight? I'm of the opinion that if I had made that flight it would have changed the entire scenario. The plane would have not taken off that exact moment due to my baggage or maybe the captain like my baseball hat and we talked about Derek for 5 seconds. This in turn would delay the takeoff and that would in turn would allow those birds to pass by without incident or maybe it wouldn't but it still changes the result. No? I don't know. Please explain if you can.
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