Michael Kayisms: Fallacy of the Predetermined Outcome

Thursday, July 16, 2009

We are continuing our segment on the weird things that Michael Kay says (over and over and over and over again). In the first post, John wrote about whether the Yankees have a "rally in their bones" or not.

Now, I'm here to tell you if I believe in the "fallacy of the predetermined outcome."

First of all, there is no such thing as the fallacy of the predetermined outcome (FPO), Kay just made it up. But did I really need to tell you that?

The definition of the FPO, according to Kay (considering he made it up, who else is going to define it?). For ease, I'm going to use a somewhat recent example to explain:
In the game on July 6, Derek Jeter was incorrectly called out trying to steal third base. The next batter got a hit. It would be natural to say, "Oh, if the umpire hadn't screwed up, Jeter would have scored on that hit!" Then Kay will say, "only if you believe in the FPO," because, if Jeter had been on third, the pitcher may have pitched the next batter differently and he wouldn't have gotten a hit.

The problem is, you can't "believe" in a fallacy. I'm going to use a philosophical example here so stay with me. A philosophical skeptic believes that there can be no absolute truth, that truth is relative and is different for everyone. But that means that no one can be wrong. Then, I could say there are absolute truths, and, based on the logic of a skeptic, I am right. That is the fallacy of the skeptic. (See, I actually did pay attention in my Western Civilization class). You can be a skeptic (or a predetermined outcomer) but there is the fallacy of each. You cannot believe in the fallacy, it's there or it isn't there.

So, the point is, Michael Kay isn't Socrates. He does have the whole "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing" thing down, but he still should not philosophize on-air.

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]


Anonymous,  May 15, 2010 at 12:01 PM  

If a fallacy has not yet been (or cannot be)proven then it becomes sort of mythical. In this case, shouldn't an individual get the opportunity to beleive in it or not?

steve August 17, 2016 at 4:09 PM  

None other than Joe Pepitone's daughter refers to him as "The Ass Clown". Perfect ! And for a journalism major who has broadcast Yankee games longer than I care to remember...his grammar is quite poor. All the Yes announcers like to say "Between he and I" or similar such phrases. Not the worst thing...but for professional broadcasters? Anyway...he IS an ass !!

4corners June 15, 2018 at 1:09 PM  

Actually, it is called "outcome bias." While not a formal fallacy it is an error in thinking studied in psychology. It is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.

Post a Comment

Legal Disclaimer

The owners, operators, and writers of the Michael Kay's Successors blog are in no way sponsored, endorsed or affiliated with the New York Yankees or the aforementioned Michael Kay. Because if they were, we'd be on World Series championship #39 by now.

Also, anything written about broadcaster/on-air personalities is all in good fun and meant to be taken as a joke.

  © Blogger template The Professional Template II by Ourblogtemplates.com 2009

Back to TOP