Who do the Yankees want to face in ALDS?

Friday, September 10, 2010

Right now the Yankees are 2.5 games ahead of the Rays for first place in the AL East. The Rays are 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. So barring a Mets-like collapse that would end in me taking a long walk off a short bridge, the Yankees should make the playoffs. The only question now is whether they go in as the AL East Champ or the Wild Card.

I'm working under the assumption that the Twins will win the Central, and the Rangers win the West. Let's take a look at the scenarios:

If the Yankees win the AL East, and the Rays win the Wild Card:

  • Yankees play the playoff team with the worst record, the Texas Rangers.
  • Rays play Minnesota, with Minnesota having home field advantage.
  • If Yankees advance to ALCS, they will have home field advantage, regardless of who they are playing.
If the Rays in the AL East and the Yankees win the Wild Card:
  • Rays play the playoff team with the worst record, the Texas Rangers.
  • Yankees play Minnesota, with Minnesota having home field advantage.
  • If Yankees advance to ALCS, they will NOT have home field advantage, regardless of who they are playing.
So which is a better situation for the Yankees?

Twins:
  • The Yankees won the season series 4-2
  • Yankees outscored Twins 24-21.
  • Likely playoff rotation: Baker, Liriano, Duensing, Slowey.
  • Record since Aug 1: 25-11
Rangers:
  • The Yankees lead season series 4-1 (with a 3-games to play, starting tonight)
  • Yankees have outscored 27-16.
  • Likely playoff rotation: Lee, Lewis, Wilson, Hunter.
  • Record since Aug 1: 16-20
So this question might be easier to answer on Sunday after the 3 game set against the Rangers, but I'm asking now; who would you rather play?

Case for wanting to play the Twins:
  1. You don't have to face Cliff Lee in a short series
  2. Sweeping the Twins in the ALDS is an annual right of passage for the Yankees
  3. Starting rotation is kind of weak.
  4. Not a powerful lineup, especially if Justin Morneau doesn't return the season.
Case for wanting to play the Rangers:
  1. They've struggled down the stretch.
  2. Pitching staff behind Lee isn't anything special.
  3. The away games are in Texas, where average early October temps are between 60-80, instead of Minnesota, where average early October temps are between 40-60.
  4. Playing the Rangers means the Yankees finished strong, and have good momentum going into the playoffs, and will have home field advantage in both ALDS and ALCS.
So as the next three weeks of the baseball season wind down, these situations are going to be talked about a lot. Only time will tell which one comes to fruition.

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